Tesla's Roadster. Remember that? Elon's been dangling the carrot of a next-gen version since 2017, promising ludicrous speed and maybe even flight. (Yes, flight.) The latest whispers suggest a potential unveiling before year's end, but let's inject a dose of reality into this hype cycle.
The original Roadster, built on Lotus bones, was a proof of concept. It showed Tesla could build an EV. The Roadster 2.0, however, is shaping up to be a different beast, a halo car designed to grab headlines and, presumably, pre-order deposits. Musk initially slated it for 2020. Then, 2022. Then... well, the date keeps drifting further out like a stock option that's gone deep underwater.
Business Insider reports a recent uptick in activity, specifically mentioning the hiring of at least five engineers focused on "aerodynamic prototypes" this past summer. That's something, I suppose. But context matters. The article also notes a pause in development after layoffs in April 2024, and the departure of the program manager, David Zhang, in July. So, we're talking about a project that's been repeatedly started and stopped. It's hard to build momentum like that.
And then there's the deposit issue. High-profile reservation holders like Sam Altman and Marques Brownlee have reportedly requested refunds on their $50,000 deposits. That's not exactly a vote of confidence (though Musk claims Altman got his money back within 24 hours). It's anecdotal data, sure, but it suggests a growing skepticism among even the most enthusiastic early adopters. I've looked at hundreds of these product launches, and a mass refund request is never a good sign.
Musk, ever the showman, has teased that the Roadster 2.0 unveil "has a shot at being the most memorable product unveil ever." He's floated sub-one-second 0-60 mph times and even hinted at a collaboration with SpaceX. He even referenced Peter Thiel's lament about the lack of flying cars, suggesting the new Roadster might address that particular existential angst. (Though, let's be honest, even if it could fly, would you want to be one of the first to test it?)
But let's dissect that "most memorable unveil ever" claim. What does that even mean, quantitatively? Is it based on projected social media impressions? Number of pre-orders within 24 hours? Level of investor enthusiasm? Without specific metrics, it's just marketing fluff.
Franz von Holzhausen, Tesla's design boss, says the demo is on track for later in 2025. The company also posted a job opening in California related to manufacturing the vehicle. So, maybe, just maybe, this isn't vaporware. But the track record speaks for itself. Remember the Semi? The Cybertruck? Both were unveiled with great fanfare, and both suffered significant delays. (The Cybertruck did eventually ship, but only after years of waiting and a design that's, shall we say, polarizing.)
The patent for an aerodynamic system designed to keep a vehicle glued to the road at high speeds is interesting. Jae Wook Kim, a professor of aerodynamics and aeroacoustics at the University of Southampton, notes that the cost of such a system likely limits its application to premium vehicles. So, the Roadster could be a testbed for new technology that eventually trickles down to the mass market. Or, it could be an incredibly expensive gimmick designed to justify the Roadster's (undoubtedly exorbitant) price tag.
Tesla's earnings decks have listed the Roadster as being in "design development" since January 2020. That's five years of "development." At what point does "development" become "perpetual postponement"? I would be curious to know the actual number of man-hours that have been spent on the project.
The Roadster is a low volume, high-risk project. It won't move the needle on Tesla's overall production numbers or profitability. Its primary purpose is to generate buzz and attract attention. The question is, is the buzz worth the continued delays and unmet promises?
The Roadster 2.0 is either a revolutionary leap forward or an elaborate smokescreen. The data, as it stands, leans heavily towards the latter.
